Sports Card Analytics

2018-19 Virtual Prizm Basketball


Come one, come all! Here’s your chance to open a virtual box of 2018-19 Prizm Hobby Basketball. You won’t actually receive any cards but the simulation is based upon data from actual box breaks and will simulate the Prizms you might have received if you had actually opened a box. Enjoy!

Time for a little fun with statistics and probability!

Collecting and analyzing data is fun for some. Mostly geeks like myself. Anyway, one of the best things about collecting data and calculating probabilities is that these probabilities can then be used to create simulations. We’re all familiar with video games that are based on this principle, such as NBA 2K19 or Forza Horizon 4. By using data and probabilities we can develop models which attempt to accurately represent what could plausibly happen in the real world. Instead of being limited by time, energy, or our bank account, we can create and imagine an almost infinite number of possibilities.

Here I would like to introduce to you what I think may be the world’s first virtual box of basketball cards. Ok, things like Topps Bunt and Upper Deck ePacks already exist. So maybe it isn’t really the world’s first. It is almost certainly the world’s most “free” virtual box of cards though. It’s also likely the first time a Panini Prizm product has been made virtually such that it simulates the Prizms you could pull from a real box. Just to clarify, so I don’t get 1000 emails asking for cards, you are not actually going to receive the cards in the simulation. This is all just for fun.

To create this simulation I used data collected from (79) 2018-19 Panini Prizm Hobby Boxes as shared in my previous blog entry. Here’s how it works. First the simulation determines how many of each type of Prizm you’ve hit in your box. The rate at which the Prizms hit (both numbered and non-numbered) is representative of real 2018-19 Prizm Hobby Basketball boxes. Once the simulation determines which type of Prizms are in your box, the players are determined randomly from a list of base cards in the set. Honestly, I’m not kidding myself, it’s not the most sophisticated thing in the world. But I thought if you’ve got an itch to open a box of Prizm and you’ve got no cash, it might be fun to still have a chance to simulate a box and see what you might have pulled.

To open a virtual box of Prizm, just type a number into spreadsheet where prompted below. When you hit return or enter, the simulation will run and a list of your Prizms will be displayed.

If hope you enjoy the simulator. If you like it, and would like to see more sports card box simulations, let me know in the comments below. Also, if you hit something epic, grab a screen shot and share it on Instagram (@sportscardanalytics).

Till next time – Jeff

Virtual Prizm Logo.jpg